Gold prices stabilized after falling below the $4,000 mark, but the market remains bearish on short-term trends.

International gold prices fell for the second consecutive week. Although slowing US inflation data and declining US Treasury yields provided some support, escalating tensions between the US and Iran pushed up oil prices, and resilient US economic data strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain high interest rates, dragging down gold prices.

Spot gold was under pressure for most of the past week, rising to $4,122.63 per ounce at the start of the week but subsequently giving back those gains. Lower-than-expected US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) briefly pushed gold prices above $4,050.

However, strong retail sales data and the situation in the Middle East pushed up oil prices , triggering market concerns about rising inflation. Gold prices fell below the $4,000 mark on Friday (July 17), hitting a weekly low of $3,959.37. They rebounded in the late session driven by bargain hunting, closing at $4,015.83, still recording a 2.5% decline for the week.

A recent gold survey by Kitco, a precious metals information service provider, shows that Wall Street analysts are significantly bearish on the outlook for gold prices in the coming week. Of the 14 analysts surveyed, 11 (79%) expect gold prices to continue to fall, only one is bullish, and two believe that prices will consolidate sideways.

Retail investors, however, were divided. Of the 169 respondents, 68 (40%) expected gold prices to rise, 61 (36%) believed they would continue to fall, and the remaining 40 (24%) expected gold prices to consolidate within a range.

How do analysts view gold price trends for the coming week? Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, believes that gold prices will continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Unless the market clearly expects the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates again, it will be difficult to break through to the upside. However, the continued purchase of gold by central banks around the world is expected to provide support for gold prices.

Nguyen Thu Lan, head of foreign exchange and commodities research at Commerzbank, pointed out that the escalating conflict in the Middle East poses a risk of further surges in energy prices, and market expectations for interest rate hikes are likely to persist for some time, thus limiting the upside potential for gold prices in the short term.

FxPro senior market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich predicts that gold prices will continue to decline next week. He points out that gold's decline has continued since May, and recent rallies have been weaker, indicating that the overall downward trend remains unchanged.

Although the $4,000 level is still attracting bargain hunters and temporarily limiting the decline, he expects gold prices to continue to fluctuate downwards in the coming months, possibly falling to $3,300 per ounce by September, with the possibility of short-term rebounds during the process.

However, Paul Wong, market strategist at Canadian asset management firm Sprott, believes that gold is currently in a technically oversold zone. Historical experience shows that summer is usually a seasonal low for gold prices, and if catalysts such as a shift in Federal Reserve policy or further deterioration in geopolitics emerge in August, gold prices may still have a chance to rebound.

Source: [Lianhe Zaobao] (https://www.zaobao.com/finance/world/story20260718-9383196)