Goldman Sachs: Brent crude could break $120 if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

Goldman Sachs analysts predict that if shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue, Brent crude oil could rise to over $120 per barrel (about S$155) by the fourth quarter of this year.

However, this is not the bank's baseline forecast. Goldman Sachs' latest analysis report on Monday (July 20) pointed out that " escalating tensions in the Middle East and estimated declines in Persian Gulf oil shipments to below 45% of pre-war levels have driven oil prices higher again."

Goldman Sachs currently projects that Brent crude oil prices will remain around $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and fall to $75 next year, provided that tensions in the Middle East ease. Analysts point out that this forecast faces upside risks, given the disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the threat to shipping in the Red Sea.

The global energy market experienced significant volatility this month, with renewed conflict between the US and Iran and the Houthi rebels in Yemen threatening a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, pushing Brent crude prices back above $91 at one point.

Analysts point out that the decline in global inventories in the second quarter made the oil market more vulnerable to supply shocks, but the decrease in Chinese imports coupled with increased demand elasticity may limit the expected rise in oil prices.

Brent crude futures were last quoted at $88.58 per barrel. At the beginning of the US-Iran conflict in late April, it briefly broke through $126 per barrel.

Source: [Lianhe Zaobao] (https://www.zaobao.com/finance/world/story20260721-9397377)