The IMF slightly lowered its global economic growth forecast.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released an updated World Economic Outlook report on Wednesday (July 8), slightly lowering its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3%, 0.1 percentage points lower than its April forecast.

According to reports from Xinhua News Agency and Reuters, this is the second time the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year, following a 0.2 percentage point reduction in April.

The IMF said the downgrade reflects the impact of the Middle East conflict, but thanks to the development and application of artificial intelligence, demand-driven growth in the global technology sector is accelerating, partially offsetting the negative impact of the conflict.

The economic growth rate is expected to rebound to 3.4% in 2027, but this level will still be lower than the average of 3.5% in 2024 and 2025.

The IMF believes that downside risks to the global economy remain significant. The possibility of a renewed escalation of geopolitical tensions persists; if conflict were to break out again, it would exacerbate commodity price volatility, further threaten supply chain security, push up inflation, and drag down financial conditions.

However, if shipping in the Strait of Hormuz recovers more smoothly than expected, commodity price increases are lower than expected, and economic growth may be higher than expected.

According to the latest IMF forecast, advanced economies, emerging markets, and developing economies will grow by 1.7% and 3.8% respectively this year, both 0.1 percentage points lower than previously expected. Specifically, the IMF lowered its growth forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia by 1.2 percentage points to 0.7%, for the Eurozone by 0.2 percentage points to 0.9%, for the United States by 2.3%, and for China by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%.

The updated report also shows that global inflation is expected to rise to 4.7% this year from 4.1% last year, before falling back to 3.9% in 2027. The IMF points out that the main drivers of price increases this year are energy and food prices, and inflation is expected to remain uneven across different countries.

In addition, global trade volume growth is expected to slow to 3.5% this year from 5% last year, before rebounding to 4.3% in 2027.

Source: [Lianhe Zaobao] (https://www.zaobao.com/news/world/story20260708-9334713)