The US has already refunded over $100 billion in tariffs this fiscal year, yet its budget deficit continues to widen.

(Washington, D.C.) Budget data released by the U.S. government on Monday (July 13) showed that the government has refunded hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs collected after the Supreme Court ruled some tariffs illegal, and the U.S. federal budget deficit has widened for the first time since the beginning of the fiscal year.

Since President Trump took office again last year, tariffs have been a core element of his economic policy.

However, in February of this year, the Supreme Court ruled that most of the additional tariffs ordered by Trump were illegal, forcing the government to refund companies that had already paid tariffs.

According to budget data, the United States has paid out $81 billion (approximately S$104.8 billion) in tariff refunds so far this fiscal year, far exceeding the $5 billion paid in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

U.S. Treasury officials said the sharp increase in tariff refunds was almost entirely due to the Supreme Court ruling, with most of the refunds concentrated in May and June.

Trump touted tariffs as a panacea for solving economic problems, claiming they could bring manufacturing back to the United States, secure more favorable trade deals, and reduce the federal budget deficit.

However, the U.S. federal budget deficit, which narrowed slightly last year due to increased tariff revenue, has widened again.

The current US fiscal year begins in October 2025. In the first nine months of this fiscal year, the US federal budget deficit has reached $1.367 trillion, a 2% increase year-on-year. In June alone, the budget deficit reached $120 billion.

"This year's tariff refund program is large enough to have a significant impact on the macroeconomy, fiscal and market levels," Evercore ISI's analysis team wrote in a report last Friday (10th).

However, the analysis team also pointed out that these refunds "only represent a temporary increase in the deficit" as the Trump administration is working to build new tariff barriers.

The U.S. Trade Representative's office is investigating whether about 60 countries have violated the ban on forced labor, and the findings could be used as grounds for raising tariffs. Evercore ISI estimates that tariff revenue will eventually reach more than $300 billion annually.

Source: [Lianhe Zaobao] (https://www.zaobao.com/news/world/story20260714-9361913)